Copper supply chain sustainable development iii abstract chinese production of copper cathodes depends largely on imports of copper concentrates, copper scrap or other intermediate copper products, because the natural occurrence of. Examining the temporal demand and sustainability of copper. It notes in its outlook for copper demand report, that global refined copper demand will outpace production and maintain the market in deficit over the coming year, driven by solid demand. Factors affecting copper prices include supply, demand. Most of the copper producing countries will not be able to sustain their production. Total global copper production from mines amounted to an estimated 21 million metric tons.
Supply concerns from lockdowns to prevent a further spread. The supply of metals comined with copper will decrease unless their extraction efficiencies from copper ore are substantially increased. Low demand based on wood mackenzie forecast demand outlook. The copper metal market service long term outlook lto is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The first quarter of 2014 saw a 5% rise in copper production, and over 8% rise in. Usgs mineral resources program coppera metal for the ages. Asias level of economic activity and urbanization is far from complete, it will be a chief source of.
It also discusses supply and demand trends that are likely to shape the industry for the remainder of this century. Global copper demand and supply growth rates 2015 statista. In 2008, the global copper supply rate had increased by around 1. The price recovery that emerged from mid2016 has started to encourage project development with significant brownfield and greenfield tonnage shifted from our probable and into our.
So the 2 really important figures we remember from the global copper supply demand forecast. Scurve for refined copper demand by country, 2017 italy france india canada indonesia russia thailand s. The basics of supply and demand university of new mexico. Along with each major statistic on the chart, a reference is shown. Global copper longterm outlook q1 2018 report wood mackenzie. Icsg releases latest copper market forecast 20192020 download press release.
A looking into future copper supply and demand korelin. According to a study from geologists at yale university, new discoveries of copper have raised global reserves by just 0. High demand based on combination of ica study done for long term copper demand and a yale university study done based on iea forecasts for 2ds on climate reduction goals. On the demand side, we expect an acceleration in chinese copper consumption in the fourth quarter of 2019, mainly driven by a boost in demand from the electric power sector after seasonal weakness in the first half. Subscribe to receive an email notification when a publication is added to this page.
Swiss energy strategy 2050, a miners perspective important notice concerning this document including forward looking statements this document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking statements which are prospective in nat. Base case demand based on teck copper demand model. Copper is a base metal like nickel, zinc, aluminum, lead, etc. Global copper longterm outlook q1 2018 report wood. Current copper supply and demand issues may not bring the market back into equilibrium for many years. Government delegates and industry advisors from most of the worlds leading copper producing and using countries met to discuss key issues affecting the global copper market. A copper price forecast for 2020 and 2021 corona crash. International research team report iv because china is the largest importer of copper worldwide, the impacts of a decrease in world copper supply due to resource depletion, steep increases in metal prices, new international. Government delegates and industry advisors from most of the worlds leading copper producing and using countries met to discuss key issues affecting the global copper. Copper 19882020 data 20212022 forecast price quote. A provides the basic assumptions and detailed data used in estimation pdf. Iwcc statistics and data series international wrought. Pdf examining the temporal demand and sustainability of.
Four scenarios for copper demand and supply, and the energy required for copper production have been developed. As large developing countries have entered the global market, demand for mineral commodities, including copper, has increased. The worlds production supply and consumption demand of copper have increased dramatically in the past 25 years. In 2020, we expect a rebound in global copper consumption due to the policyeasing shift implemented this year in major economies. Economics is based upon the law of supply and demand i. The demand is increasing steadily and the supply has not. The rapidly rising demand may cause future supply problems and may. For a number of metals, china accounted for 70% or more of global demand growth in last five. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future new production from mining will diminish, and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. Estimating global copper demand until 2100 with regression and. Sustained growth in copper demand is expected to continue because copper is essential to. Demand for high and medium grade mainstream iron ore remained firm in the context of the attractive steel margins created jointly by steel supply side reform, healthy enduse demand and periodic production curbs aimed at air quality improvement. Total global copper production from mines amounted to.
According to the international copper study group, total refined copper production for 20 was 21. Review and forecast on chinas copper supply and demand. Peak copper is the point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Supply and demand dynamics all examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. Chinas copper supplydemand forecast in 2017 chinas copper production and consumption will be in a medium level growth rate the smeltingrefining capacity expansion will be about 300 kt respectively. This referenceidentifies the table in the report where details on that item, from 1996 through 2016, will be found.
In this report, original data from these sources are brought together and rationalized by cda and global market consultants, inc. Copper has experienced a significant move up shattering resistance levels and moving up for 14 straight days. Sustainable development and the global copper supply chain. After opening calendar year 2018 in rough balance, the oil market finished it in mild surplus. Coppermining supply doubled between 1994 and 2014, and probably held steady or continued to grow in 2015. Global mega trends and key markets for copper copper alliance. Regular supply and demand forecasts for unwrought copper are prepared by the iwcc joint statistical committee. Examining the temporal demand and sustainability of copper in. This should be supportive for the copper price in 2020. The results of the first analysis show that both the demand and the supply have substantially increased since 2000 after remaining relatively minute for the period from 1950 to. The law of supply and demand copper electrical contractor. Global demand for copper metal refined copper and recycled scrap is projected to advance 4.
Low growth on the supply side suggested the copper market could tighten but demand picture outside of china has softened in 2019. Analysis of coppers market and pricefocus on the last decades. Examining the temporal demand and sustainability of copper in china. World copper market size, market share, market leaders. We then compare the demand results to detailed predictions of primary and secondary copper supply to identify situations in which future demand may or may not be able to be met by available supply, and to identify the implications of declining ore grade and enhanced energy demand. Uses of copper supply, demand, production, resources. Demand for copper could increase by 2341% by 2050, and. We have been talking a lot about copper in the past 3 weeks and rightfully so. Indeed, the slowdown in china, a major consumer of the metal, is a key reason why copper is under pressure. On the demand side, china is a strong purchaser of copper. Copper supply chain sustainable development iii abstract chinese production of copper cathodes depends largely on imports of copper concentrates, copper scrap or other intermediate copper products, because the natural occurrence of copper in china can not satisfy the demand. Copper is among the three most used metals in the world, and high quantities of the red metal must be mined every year to meet global demand.
Gains will be driven by applications such as building wire and plumbing and electrical grid wire and cable. The study, titled copper intensity in the electrification of transport and. A comprehensive study is carried out to determine 1 the annual historical demand and supply, 2 the annual prospective demand, and 3 the carrying capacity and future sustainability of copper resources in china. Nov 11, 2016 a looking into future copper supply and demand. Chinese metal demand has been driven by fast growth in industrial production, and investment in infrastructure, construction, and manufacturing. As large developing countries have entered the global. Lme cash price and annual global refined supplydemand balance, 20152021200 600 q1 q2 q3 q4 quarterly sd balance, 2017. June 2017 copper demand will be substantially impacted by the growing market for electric vehicles evs over the next decade, according to new research commissioned by the international copper association ica. Global demand for copper could increase by up to 341% by 2050, and energy use is likely to increase with it rising to a possible 2. Generally, when people discuss copper, most of the focus is on the demand side. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of cme group or its affiliated institutions. Nov, 2019 copper is a base metal like nickel, zinc, aluminum, lead, etc. A case study of nickels key role in enabling the transition to a lownetzero carbon future. Customs data showed the countrys copper imports in march went up nearly % from a year ago, as many factories started to resume operations.
This report and the information herein should not be. If existing copper mining businesses are working close to their current capacity, then a rise in world demand will simply lead to a reduction in available stocks. Copper demand and supply according to the international copper study group, total refined copper production for 20 was 21. Statistical data on the supply and consumption of copper and copper alloys in the united states are available from many governmental and private sources. Some of the worlds largest copper mines faced supply disruptions earlier this year, including a six week strike at escondida, the worlds biggest copper mine, and a ban on exports in indonesia which saw freeports production and shipments fall. The decline of copper supply would cause a mountingdeficit in turn increase demand by 2025. Icsg copper market outlook sees supplydemand reversal in 2015. For the stock dynamics method, a strong growth of copper demand is found in the.
Copper byproducts from manufacturing and obsolete copper products are readily recycled and contribute significantly to copper supply. Mar 27, 2018 the copper metal market service long term outlook lto is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The cumulative demand for copper is expected to exceed its reserves and reserve base in most scenarios by 2050. Fi nally, the chapter analyzes recent trends in in. Request pdf copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050 to a set of wellregarded international scenarios uneps geo4, we have added. Forecasts are assembled from all of the major copper producing and consuming countries throughout the world, and are available to the copper industry. Supply concerns from lockdowns to prevent a further. Jul 06, 2012 this statistic represents the worldwide copper demand and supply growth rates between 2007 and 2015.
Icsg 20142015 copper supply and demand forecasts and. To a set of wellregarded international scenarios uneps geo4, we have added consideration of the demand, supply, and energy implications related to copper production and use over the period. Icsg releases latest copper market forecast 20192020. This statistic represents the worldwide copper demand and supply growth rates between 2007 and 2015.
In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, nearterm global demand is contracting, and mine supply is at risk. There could be seen rising trends in the copper and aluminium supply and demand from 1950 to 2015 disclosing. A copper price forecast for 2020 and 2021 corona crash update. Some of the worlds largest copper mines faced supply disruptions earlier this year, including a six week strike at escondida, the worlds biggest copper mine, and a ban on exports in. The international copper study group icsg met in lisbon, portugal on 22nd 23rd october 2019. Copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050. Copper mining supply doubled between 1994 and 2014, and probably held steady or continued to grow in 2015.
1226 762 1396 19 1318 1465 1601 1288 326 1491 29 1050 49 1365 1328 339 558 36 295 470 295 1619 482 343 252 1484 878 1196 443 1060 9 1303 1243 1326 1347 98